Urea International: mainly temporarily stable
Source: Zhongyu information time: December 25, 2020
Under the background of limited supply in the East and elasticity of demand in the west, the foundation of urea market is more stable at the end of this year. China’s output has fallen further and exports have stopped. Southeast Asia’s spot supply in January is uncertain, and Saudi Arabia’s safco 4 unit may last until mid January, further restricting exports.
The rapid price of seasonal demand at the end of Brazil has risen to a high of US $280 / ton CFR. Egyptian producers continued to sell at a low FOB price of $280 / ton, and the price of barges in the United States rose slightly again.
There was no parallel in history. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been shrinking, urea prices have mostly closed up after a year of unprecedented energy prices. In 2020, the FOB price of the Middle East and Egypt is about 240 US dollars / ton, and the price of barges in the United States is close to 220 US dollars / ton. The U.S. market will be the focus of the first quarter. Traders are already lining up for shipments due to the rise of seasonal demand.
AGUS estimates that the output of gas-based urea has decreased to 12300 tons / day, a decrease of 70% over mid November. While domestic prices are high, exports are correspondingly stagnant.
Egyptian producers maintain prices
Producers continue to sell at a low FOB price of $280 / ton and will find support when seasonal purchases resume early next year.
Indonesia will resume exports
Exports will recover soon, and producers will benefit from reduced regional supply competition in the short term.
30-60 DAY outlook
Stable to slightly firm
Restricted production will support existing prices and may allow some modest increases as demand reappears