Urea International: mixed
Source: Zhongyu information time: May 14, 2021
India buys less and the market is prosperous. Some illogical is that India’s bidding scale is relatively small, but it makes the urea market bullish. Since India will bid again in May and may have to pay higher prices, traders have begun to buy stocks in June and July. This move was supported by high crop prices and strong demand in several major markets, especially the United States. The CIF price in the United States in May is still close to US $400 per ton. At present, buyers are bidding for the CIF price in early June. This week, traders bought urea from Egypt and Algeria at an FOB price of $370 / ton, while it is reported that a sales in July came from the Middle East at an FOB price of $345 / ton. If China’s domestic urea price remains unchanged (currently rising), it seems that the urea market will gain a firm foothold in June, which is contrary to the prospect before mmtc bidding.
Market driven
Us: demand and suppliers remained active in the first half of May. Imports are expected to increase in the second half of 2021 to avoid recession. This shortage reappeared this spring.
India: mmtc purchased 550000 tons, about 1 million tons less than the estimated demand in the bidding. India needs to buy more urea for shipment in June.
Brazil: before the start of the main import season in July, the price has rebounded to $390 / ton. Crop prices support the current level well.
30 – 60 day outlook
Company: traders have begun to be long, the demand outlook in most markets is optimistic, and crop prices are still high.
