Urea International: mixed
Source: Zhongyu information time: July 16, 2021
Driven by China India relations, the urea market is still strong on the whole, despite some weakness this week.
India’s RCF has announced another round of bidding, which will end next week, which will test the depth of supply again. Since Chinese producers are unable or unwilling to export, the purchasing agency is unlikely to significantly exceed recent purchases.
There are some signs of weakness in Europe. British and French buyers have only established limited urea positions for the next quarter, and the poor crop economy is considered to be a key factor. The cumulative effect of demand delay or reduction spreads to wider areas, which may alleviate the tense supply and demand situation over time.
The Chinese government has successfully restricted urea exports from major entities, leaving only small private traders to sell urea
From now to early August, China has imported more than 1 million tons, which puts pressure on prices
Next week’s tender is unlikely to ensure sufficient tonnage to maintain inventory levels during peak demand, which in turn should maintain an urgent pace of tender
Outlook: without China’s participation, the supply of export market will continue to be tight in the third quarter.