Urea International: rising steadily
Source: Zhongyu information time: 12-04-2020
NDIA’s mmtc has been close to 1.3 million tons, and higher global prices have been confirmed in the process. Suppliers in eastern and Western Suez benefit from selling at prices unmatched by other CFR markets. Suppliers in the Middle East have reached an FOB price of 282 US dollars / ton, the net price of goods in the Black Sea is about 250 US dollars / ton, and sellers in the Baltic Sea will see a return of about 240 US dollars / ton.
Either because of the peak season or India’s priority development, the liquidity in other regions is very weak. In France, purchases slowed, but prices remained unchanged after heavy sales in Egypt last month. The rise in barge prices in the United States stalled this week due to tight supply.
India needs time to decide when to sell again, which will cool the market. However, early signs of demand in Australia and strong buying expected in the US in the first quarter should prevent a sharp correction in prices.
India is on the sidelines
Rabi estimates that 700000 to 1.2 million tons of urea still need to be imported. However, the slowdown in domestic sales will cause the Department of fertilizer to suspend before starting the next round of bidding.
China is still likely to export
India had occupied export positions before India bid, and now it needs to transfer these positions elsewhere or sell at a loss. The delay before India’s next bid may see pressure construction.
Let’s warm up in 1q
The upward trend has stalled, but due to the shortage of supply in the first quarter, prices may rise, attracting spot tons in spring.
Tight supply will support prices in the short term, but without India, the possibility of further rise is limited.