Urea International: stable price and uncertain prospect

Urea International: stable price and uncertain prospect

Source: Zhongyu information time: July 3, 2020

executive summary

The price is stable and the prospect is uncertain

In July, the price of urea was flat, and the manufacturer had almost no remaining products for sale this month, but the market was not optimistic

It is recommended to continue to rise in August.

India has purchased less than half of the urea required for its bidding on June 19, and will soon have to buy more urea to meet the sharp increase in demand. Brazil and Argentina are steadily buying government bonds in July and August. Elsewhere, demand is slow.

Therefore, the question is whether these active big markets can support prices next month. India may be able to do it: from April to June, India’s sales increased by $2.6 million, and the increase in demand should absorb all goods exported by China in August. The west is not so clear. The price in Brazil remains around 240 USD / T CFR, but suppliers are trying to maintain a higher price level.

Market drivers

India

The record demand for urea surprised everyone. India faces challenges in ensuring the import of urea required in the third quarter

China

The manufacturer strongly resisted the price reduction, rejected the bid of USD 220 / T FOB, and restrained further short selling

Brazil / Argentina

Peak season demand is coming. Argentina is expected to buy another 18000-200000 tons of urea in August, while Brazil will import an average of 5-600000 tons per month by December

30-60 DAY outlook

stable

From July to August, the price of urea was flat, the urea market seemed to remain balanced, and the seasonal growth of China’s exports came from India

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