Urea International: China restricts urea supply
Source: Zhongyu information time: October 15, 2021
Most of this week’s activities have focused on China, and formal and informal government activities have significantly reduced exports.
As the market expected that China would take measures to significantly reduce urea exports, traders scrambled to ensure that ships carrying urea from Chinese ports were bound for India and other places before customs inspection on October 15.
Prices in other regions mainly continued to rise, but the increase was lower than that in previous weeks.
Brazil consolidated around $800 / ton CFR this week, but in the United States, the price of Nora barge fell to about $750 / ton CFR on Thursday morning.
The reduction of China’s exports in the coming months is beneficial to urea, but in the short term, due to the rapid liquidation of positions, it will lead to local weakness.
Natural gas price
For better or worse, participants are paying attention to the change of TTF natural gas price as a guide to nitrogen price.
The cost of chartering fluctuates every day, which hinders participants’ ability to sell forward contracts from some regions.
30-60 DAY outlook
As China’s exports are restricted and Europe’s production is greatly reduced, the demand for urea will continue to be in short supply.