Urea International: the overall market is weak

Urea International: the overall market is weak

Source: Zhongyu information time: May 8, 2020

Zhongyu information report:

Waiting for India

Apart from knowing that 14 quotations have been submitted, mmtc, which submitted the bid on May 7, India, knows little about it. The quotation will start on May 8. The consensus at the time of bidding is that the quotation will fall at the cost and freight price of US $230 per ton.

This may be too low for Chinese suppliers, so it may be difficult for India to buy more than 1 million tons of urea required by the bidding. However, by the first half of June, China should be able to digest the spot supply from the Middle East, the Russian Federal Reserve Bank (FSU) and Egypt to help stabilize oil prices temporarily. In recent sales, the price of urea in the Middle East has been reduced to US $220 / ton FOB. This week, Egyptian urea was sold to Latin America at a FOB price of US $210 per ton. The FOB price of the Black Sea is between us $200 / ton and US $210 / ton.

Market driven

India

After the high sales in April, in order to obtain the required imports, it may have to bid again in June

Brazil

This week, CFR prices in major Western spot markets have fallen to $215 a tonne. The next trend of prices will have a significant impact on the market in June

Australia

In the first half of June, a large number of buying continued, mainly importing urea from the Middle East and Malaysia, reducing the spot supply in the East

30 – 60 day outlook

Oversupply means that the market is generally weak, but Indian purchases should stabilize prices in May.

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