Urea International: cliff edge, continue to decrease
Source: Zhongyu information time: April 24, 2020
Zhongyu information report:
The edge of a cliff
The support of the strong demand in April to the urea market has basically ended, and the prices in May and June are on the brink of a cliff. Suppliers are trying to sell, but traders are only trying to make up for short selling, and the final buyers are few and very cautious.
After the panic in the oil market, US crude oil prices fell on Tuesday and rebounded to CIF $250-253 / ton in the middle of the week. Egyptian manufacturers had a pleasant week. In May, they sold nearly 100000 tons at an FOB price of US $232 / ton, but there were still more than 200000 tons in stock that month. In May, Ukrainian urea was on sale at FOB price of USD 210-215 / ton.
An Indian tender is urgently needed to provide an export channel for Asian spot goods in May. Elsewhere, lower energy prices are working through the system, reduced demand for industrial urea, prompting more urea to flow to the agricultural market, and trade financing is becoming a problem.
The supplier hopes that mmtc will bid early to purchase urea for May. Any delay will hit prices
As energy prices fell, the calculation of production costs was revised downward. Exports may be below last year’s cut-off point of $230 per ton FOB.
Key areas of spot urea demand in May and June. As demand dries up elsewhere, suppliers will increasingly target Brazil and Mexico.
Prices will continue to fall until some export supplies are squeezed out of the market.