Urea International: prices will remain strong
Source: Zhongyu information time: April 10, 2020
Zhongyu information report:
India and the United States maintained the market in April
India’s total procurement volume of nearly 750000 tons, coupled with the continued rise in US prices, helped to maintain the urea market in April. The RCF purchased 747000 tons in its bid, mainly for the east coast port, and may need to tender again for the West Coast soon. The price in the US Gulf region in May is equivalent to US $265 / T C & F, with a healthy premium compared with other destinations.
The FOB price of Egyptian granular urea in April was US $240-241.50, while the FOB price of Baltic granular urea in Latin America was US $220.
The next May will be less healthy. Argus’s trade balance forecast showed a large supply surplus in May and June. The bill market prices in May and June fell sharply, and the expectations of buyers with falling prices in the next 2-3 months are increasing.
India purchased 747000 tons from the target of 1.5 million tons, but due to the decline of domestic production due to covid-19, India needs to buy again for shipment in May.
The overall price is high, but the supplier cannot ship more urea this spring. The driving role of the United States is almost over.
Higher production levels and lower energy costs have led to forecasts of China’s export growth throughout the summer.
April was strong and then weak
Most manufacturers promise that the tonnage in April and the price will remain strong for timely shipment. But no one has determined the bid or the level of the bid in May.