Urea International: urea prices continue to rise this week

Urea International: urea prices continue to rise this week

Source: Zhongyu information time:  June 12, 2020

executive summary

Buyer involvement

Urea prices continued to rise this week as buyers were involved in sales in June and July. From South Asia in East Asia to Latin America in the west, procurement has been widely spread. Some purchases are guaranteed by profits, while others are not.

Brazil has always been a leading market. The buyer has accepted that the price of shipment from July to August is as high as US $245 / T CFR, which supports the rise of FOB level. The Middle East paid US $225 / T FOB and Egypt paid US $233 / T FOB.

The question now is, how far can this rebound go? India will bid soon and need a lot of procurement. Therefore, it needs some Chinese urea. The current price is USD 230-235 / ton FOB. Brazil surprised many people, but it is entering a busier period of the year and prices should continue to rise.

Market drivers

China

Due to turning losses into profits, the output has decreased to about 150000 tons / day. Since July, exports are needed to maintain this level of production, but India needs China’s urea

Brazil

Due to short covering and reduced quotation, the cost and freight of granular urea has soared to USD 240-245 / ton. The air is getting hotter, but it is impossible to reduce prices in the short term

India

In early June, China’s auto sales continued to be strong, stimulating import demand. The bidding is going on soon, and the price should be higher than last time

30-60 DAY outlook

Next to

Traders and end buyers have stepped in, and the market is very stable in June and the first half of July. The next price test will be shipped on July 2 and August

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