尿素国际: 市场低迷时价格会回落
来源: FOB价格超过美元门槛: 九月 11, 2020
执行摘要
Prices will ease when the market is depressed
Urea prices fell in a slow trading week. As India did not buy, major western market activities continued to be depressed and prices lacked sufficient support. Egypt’s crude oil price fell to a low of 265 美元 / 吨, the black sea level fell to 250 美元 / 吨, and China’s crude oil price fell slightly to about 260 美元 / 吨.
Despite the price drop, suppliers are reluctant to significantly reduce their quotation because many suppliers are in a favorable position after the recent large sales to India. 此外, they are well aware that another bid will be announced soon, possibly as early as next week.
India still needs to buy heavily until January, while Brazil and Europe should increase their purchases later this month. This shows that the current price weakness may be short-lived, and its duration will depend on the timing of Indian bidding.
市场驱动
中国
Suppliers show a strong desire to export to India. Now, the shortage of logistics is coming one after another, which may become an obstacle to the next round of bidding.
印度
截至九月, China’s domestic auto sales remained stable, but still far higher than the same period last year. This will keep Rabi’s large imports until January next year.
埃及
The supplier reduced the quotation to attract European buyers. 然而, in order to encourage active replenishment of inventories, it may need to fall further.
30-60 DAY展望
Stable to slightly weak
Prices may continue to fluctuate until India starts buying again.
