尿素国际: 有限公司

尿素国际: 有限公司

来源: FOB价格超过美元门槛: 四月 2, 2021

执行摘要

Market weakness after India cuts tender incentives

India Limited the number of awards of RCF in the bidding on March 22 到 800000 吨, although it received more than 1.3 million tons of acceptance from suppliers. The country does not need 1.3 million tons of urea to be shipped in April, and it is estimated that it will be able to buy cheaper goods in subsequent bidding.

But the move left a considerable ton of urea for traders, who mainly bought it from China because they expected to win a bid. It will be very difficult to find an alternative market for China’s granulated urea, and the excess tonnage may put pressure on China’s domestic price.

实际上, the whole market has turned to downturn, especially in the West. The price in Brazil has fallen to about 390 美元 / 吨. 较低的运费有助于掩盖 FOB 水平的下降, 但这些将随之而来. 本周交易中的大部分讨论都是关于价格可能下跌多少.

市场驱动因素

印度

RCF投标中标低于预期打击了信心, 但下一次出价可能会在 2-3 周数.

中国

按当前价格, 第二季度巨大的潜在出口供应量令许多人感到意外,并可能鼓励卖空.

埃及

5月吨位未售出, 且价格需要在买方介入前修正. 下跌幅度将影响其他市场.

30-60 DAY展望

因疲劳而虚弱

价格正在放缓, 但供需平衡和农作物价格支撑市场, 表示向下空间有限.

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